The Rise of the Writers of the Republic of China

On September 10, when the relocation of the Shenyang Arsenal had begun, Zhou Hexuan came to Zhang Xueliang's Beiping mansion again.

Zhang Xueliang smiled bitterly: "Are you going to persuade me again?"

"Liu Shuai, I was too impulsive the first two times and didn't explain things clearly," Zhou Hexuan tried to make his tone more relaxed and slow, "Let's not propose a war today, let's discuss the current situation first, okay? ?”

"You say." Zhang Xueliang nodded.

Zhou Hexuan asked: "How many troops does Shenyang have?"

Zhang Xueliang didn't hide anything, and said: "There are 8,000 elite soldiers in the Peking University Camp, there are also a few policemen in Shenyang City, and there are thousands of garrison troops around."

Zhou Hexuan nodded and said, "In other words, there are only 8,000 soldiers in Shenyang who can really fight a tough battle. What about the entire Liaoning Province?"

"Fengtian Province has a total of 90,000 troops, but most of them are garrison troops with low combat effectiveness, and the elite troops are less than 20,000." Zhang Xueliang said.

Zhou Hexuan asked again: "How much is the total strength of the Feng army?"

"400,000, but more than 100,000 belong to the reclamation army. These soldiers are old, weak, sick and disabled, and they are not much different from farmers," Zhang Xueliang said. The army is the main one."

"That is to say, there are at least 200,000 soldiers in the four northeastern provinces. Once the war breaks out, more than 100,000 elite soldiers can be transferred back from North China," Zhou Hexuan asked. How many?"

Zhang Xueliang is very clear about this. He said: "The full-staffed 2nd Division of the Japanese Army has 10,500 troops. But the actual situation is more than that. There are 10,000 township soldiers (retired professional soldiers) and 3,000 policemen in the Northeast. , Japan has about 23,000 troops in Northeast China. In addition, Japan also has 30,000 troops stationed in North Korea (Korean Division) that can provide quick support, with a total strength of more than 50,000.”

Zhou Hexuan said: "That is to say, once Shenyang goes to war, the strength of the two sides will be 8,000 elite Fengjun plus 10,000 local garrison, against Japan's 10,050 Kwantung Army. If the war escalates, 100,000 Fengjun will deal with it." There are more than 23,000 Japanese soldiers. If the war is further escalated, 300,000 Fengjun will face more than 50,000 Japanese soldiers. Are you afraid that you will not win?"

Zhang Xueliang said speechlessly: "It can't be calculated like this. More than 90% of Fengjun's main force is deployed in North China. These troops cannot be transferred away easily, otherwise not only will there be chaos in North China, but also chaos in several provinces in the Northwest."

Zhou Hexuan said: "Once Fengjun and Japan go to war, it will be a national war. Yan Xishan and Feng Yuxiang dare to risk the world's disgrace to add chaos?"

"That's not certain," Zhang Xueliang said, "Mingcheng, don't forget that Yan Baichuan returned to Shanxi on a Japanese military plane this time. In addition, I have received information that the Guangdong-Guangxi Allied Forces in the south may have already cooperated with them." The Japanese Army Ministry has a secret agreement."

Zhou Hexuan persuaded: "Even if you give up the Northwest completely, and give up part of the North China territory, it will be just a rivalry between brothers. And losing the Northeast will be a loss of teachers and humiliation to the country. Whichever is more important, please think twice."

Zhang Xueliang patted his chest and said: "No, be honest and feel at ease. According to the existing information, the Japanese Army Department has given up the conspiracy plan after being reprimanded and warned by the cabinet. The Kwantung Army is also very quiet these days, and they don't even take the initiative anymore. It's a challenge."

"If something goes wrong, it must be a monster. Does Liu Shuai believe that the Kwantung Army, which has always been domineering, will become so obedient? This is paralyzing you!" Zhou Hexuan said.

Zhang Xueliang said: "The Kwantung Army does not have the support of the Japanese cabinet. They are not strong enough to fight for a long time. At least military supplies will be very difficult. After thinking about it, I think it is a good idea to relocate the arsenal. As long as the Kwantung Army If the army cannot get ammunition supplies, they will not have the ability to expand the war.”

Well, Zhang Xueliang agreed to relocate the arsenal because he didn't want the Kwantung Army to have successors.

Is this really a crooked shot?

Zhou Hexuan asked: "What if the Japanese military launches a coup to overthrow the cabinet government?"

"How is it possible? State affairs are child's play. There is no reason to say that a coup d'etat is a coup d'etat." Zhang Xueliang did not believe this prediction at all.

Not only Zhang Xueliang, but Zhou Hexuan, a time traveler, I am afraid that no one would believe that the Japanese military could stage a coup.

How does Zhou Hexuan explain this?

The prophets of the future also need others to believe in them.

Zhou Hexuan's persuasion fell into a knot. The difference between him and Zhang Xueliang was whether the Japanese cabinet would support the Kwantung Army.

If the Japanese cabinet continues to oppose the Kwantung Army's plan, then the situation will develop according to Zhang Xueliang's vision, and the Northeast side will sell a little bit more at most. But according to the historical trajectory, half a month after the Kwantung Army launched the September 18th Incident, the Japanese cabinet was frightened by the military coup and began to support the Kwantung Army’s actions to a certain extent (not all of them).

A coup d'état is a small probability event and cannot be used as an argument to convince Zhang Xueliang.

Zhou Hexuan changed his mind and said, "Six commanders, let's think about it in another way. If the Kwantung Army creates an incident and you resolutely resist and fight back, the Japanese cabinet will see no benefit and will continue to oppose the suppression of military actions. And if you choose not to resist, Kwantung The military can get a lot of resources in Shenyang. The Japanese cabinet sees that it is profitable, and it is very likely that it will change its attitude to support the military! Japan is divided into the main war faction and the main peace faction. The more the pie has the advantage. Therefore, no matter what, we must fight head-on!"

"Not right, not right," Zhang Xueliang shook his head again and again, "Retaliation can only give the Kwantung Army an excuse to continue sending troops. Over the past ten years, the Japanese army has sent troops to Northeast China, Tianjin and Shandong many times. As long as the Chinese side compromises, they will retreat on their own. .Even if you want to beat the Japanese hard, you need to wait for the North China region to stabilize, and then it will not be too late to fight.”

What Zhang Xueliang said made sense, but Zhou Hexuan was speechless.

If he were replaced by Lao Jiang at this moment, he would probably not listen to Zhou Hexuan's advice. After all, no one can predict that the Japanese cabinet will have a coup d'état. But Lao Jiang is likely to refuse to listen to persuasion at the beginning. When he finds out that the Japanese are expanding the war without limit, Lao Jiang's back will inevitably harden, instead of retreating to the end like Zhang Xueliang.

Zhou Hexuan said helplessly: "Six Commander, then I will go first, and I will come to persuade you after the Kwantung Army has completely occupied Shenyang. The silver was transferred so that it would not be picked up by the Kwantung Army for nothing."

"Don't worry, I have already made arrangements." Zhang Xueliang smiled confidently.

Zhou Hexuan shook his head and sighed, he said so much, I hope the situation is better than in history. At least Zhang Xueliang has been vigilant, so that he won't be at a loss when someone takes over his nest.