My Age of Investment

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"Now we have to take off the emperor's new clothes, turn them into naked pigs, and show them naked to the whole world."

Xia Jingxing looked straight at the two of them, "Both of you share your thoughts."

Liu Hai and Jiang Ping looked at each other, and the former smiled and said, "Brother Jiang Ping, your financial attainments and professional qualifications are deeper than mine, so you can talk about it first."

"Liu Hai, you're overrated, you should say it first!" Jiang Ping shook his head and declined.

"Hey, I have only worked as a securities retail broker for a few years, and I have only been in charge of a hedge fund for more than two years, and I still trade stocks.

The assets of the US real estate market have been securitized, and many financial derivatives have been added on this basis.

In this regard, Brother Jiang Ping is still an expert, with a more macroscopic vision and a more comprehensive view of problems. "

"You're flattering me too much!"

...

Xia Jingxing watched the scene where the two refused each other, and knew that there might be a secret rivalry.

Because it involved control of a new fund, no one wanted to pass up this precious opportunity.

"Okay, don't refuse there. For this action, the company will set up two funds, each with an asset management scale of 1.5 billion U.S. dollars, named Lidong and Dongzhi respectively."

Hearing this, the two finally stopped fighting.

"Then let me talk first!"

Liu Hai coughed twice and cleared his throat.

"I think it is necessary to judge the specific time of the real estate market crash. If you enter the market too early, you may encounter a counterattack. The data will be reflected in the performance of the fund, which will not be very good, which will affect the confidence of LP. If you want to raise a new fund, you may encounter a counterattack. Affect the fundraising plan;

And if you enter the market too late, you will not be able to lock in enough lucrative profits. "

Xia Jingxing nodded, "Then how to determine the time of the crash?"

Liu Hai replied: "This requires a lot of manpower and material resources to obtain more data for analysis."

Xia Jingxing asked: "Okay, that's no problem, the market research team can continue to expand.

By the way, don't you also have a fintech team? Let them make a model with the data. After raising them for so long, it's time to pull them out. "

Since its inception, Lixia Fund has been recruiting mathematicians and computer engineers one after another, aiming to build a top financial technology team, with the purpose of establishing transaction models, assisting transactions, analyzing market opportunities, etc.

More than two years have passed, and this technology team has swallowed all the management fees of the Lixia Fund, and has yet to produce any decent results.

Liu Hai felt ashamed for a while. In the past two years, Xia Jingxing, as the boss, did not take away a penny of profit, and the purpose was self-evident.

But fintech stuff requires long-term investment, and it really can't achieve results in a while.

But after all, more than two years have passed, and no results have been contributed, which is indeed a bit unreasonable.

"Okay, I'll urge them."

Liu Hai nodded, settled the matter, and continued to explain his trading strategy.

"For stocks, directly through short selling operations, when the price is low, the position can be covered to make a profit.

However, when it comes to real estate, direct short selling is very difficult.

Shorting real estate securities products, such as shorting stocks of real estate companies, REITs and mortgage-backed securities, is relatively easy.

But there are also a series of problems.

The first is the liquidity of these securities. In a market with poor liquidity, short selling and subsequent position covering will have a huge impact on prices.

This will greatly reduce the profit margins of speculators, if not so bad that they cannot establish positions of sufficient size.

Secondly, when a speculator's short selling position is very large and the behavior is known by the market, it is easy to be maliciously squeezed, which leads to failure.

However, the emergence of CDS has provided a powerful weapon for market speculation.

"

Speaking of this, Liu Hai paused, "But CDS also has a series of problems.

First of all, the establishment of a huge position will inevitably have an impact on the CDS price, and the transaction behavior will convey market information, making the counterparty who provides the CDS doubtful and prudently check its original transaction.

Its possible follow-up behavior is to increase product quotations, or no longer participate in the CDS market, or even follow the short market and so on.

Second, as the CDS provided by the counterparty gradually increases, the risk of the counterparty also increases sharply.

The behavior of speculators buying CDS can be regarded as a bet against the seller.

The result of a speculator winning a bet is a loss for the counterparty. When a speculator wins a big bet, it means a big loss for the counterparty.

In other words, when a speculator makes a huge profit on his position, the counterparty who bet against him must have difficulties in fulfilling the contract.

For example, if we buy CDS from Goldman Sachs, we don’t buy much, maybe billions of dollars, but Goldman Sachs actually sells products worth hundreds of billions.

The market value of Goldman Sachs is only 60 billion U.S. dollars. Assuming an extreme situation, how to solve such a large risk exposure? "

Xia Jingxing nodded, "I understand what you mean. You are worried that the CDS sellers will go bankrupt and play tricks, and the huge amount of CDS compensation will become a pile of irrecoverable debts."

Liu Hai sighed, "Yes, there are risks in the transaction itself, and there are risks in cashing out the gains. After I researched, I found that the risks of this speculation are actually quite large."

Xia Jingxing smiled, "I have already contacted Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, asking them to design a new product for us..."

Liu Hai's eyes lit up, "This idea is very good, then this problem will be solved perfectly."

Xia Jingxing behaved very modestly, "It's only a part of the solution."

Liu Hai exclaimed, "That's amazing, and it avoids a lot of existing risks."

After continuing to introduce for a while, Liu Hai concluded: "In short, the main trading strategy I plan is to short CDO, short ABX index (subprime housing loan bond price composite index), and long CDS."

Xia Jingxing nodded, this set of trading strategies is not complicated, it is unreservedly bearish on the housing market, once the housing market falls, the three financial products invested by Liu Hai will have great gains.

Jiang Ping then talked about his trading strategy, which was more detailed than Liu Hai's.

"...When the risk exposure of the real estate market is fully exposed, there will inevitably be a large-scale debt default. These financial institutions count as one, and all of them cannot escape. Shorting them, the profit must not be inferior to shorting the real estate market.

When all the risks are released, it is possible to set off a round of financial crisis, which in turn will lead to a wave of unemployment and a series of social problems.

According to the urine nature of the federal government and the importance of Wall Street to American financial hegemony, the White House may save Wall Street.

According to the old formula, if you print money at full capacity, the dollar will inevitably depreciate, gold will naturally usher in a wave of market prices, and financial stocks can also buy bottoms. "

Hearing Jiang Ping utter such a point of view, Liu Hai felt a little frustrated, and the gap in level suddenly became apparent.

He only paid attention to the present moment, but Jiang Ping took one step and three steps, and even anticipated the situation behind.

Xia Jingxing smiled and applauded, "What you said is very exciting, especially brother Jiang Ping, you have taken into account the situation in the next few years."

Jiang Ping smiled modestly, "Speculation is not an end, but a means. The purpose of the fund is to maximize the creation of profits. It should be considered in the long run.

Of course, all deduction must be based on the premise that the property market will fall.

At the same time, when it comes to subtle operations, more research is needed.

If there are variables in the middle, all plans may be disrupted. "

Seeing Xia Jingxing's appreciation for Jiang Ping, Liu Hai was pleased and wanted to show it.

So he asked: "Jing Xing, let's do this empty, once the news spreads, I'm afraid there will be quite a big negative impact?"

"I know!"

Xia Jingxing put away his smile, his face became serious.

"Our success is based on the decline in the property market, and the decline in the property market will cause a financial crisis, and countless people will be repossessed and homeless.

So, we want to be as low-key as possible. "

Liu Hai shook his head violently, "It's impossible to keep a low profile. We poured in three billion US dollars. If we still use leverage, the movement will definitely not be small, especially if we are still "going against the general trend."

He looked at Xia Jingxing, then at Jiang Ping, and sighed, "The three of us are still Chinese, oh, by the way, Jing Xing, you are still a foreigner.

What if we make too much noise and are outraged by the real culprits on Wall Street who caused the financial crisis as scapegoats? "

Liu Hai's words literally reached Xia Jingxing's heart.

If he was not a foreigner, he would be easily attacked by trees, and he would not even think about introducing Gates and other LPs.

Even with Gates and others as LPs, they can only solve problems such as delivery and cashing in profits, and the bad reputation will still fall on Envision Capital.

He has been thinking about how to transfer hatred.

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